In 2019, the U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) released a report with a striking finding: 83% of attackers had communicated their intent before carrying out an act of violence. These signals weren’t subtle—they appeared in conversations, written notes, social media posts, or videos.
The warning signs were there.
This insight isn’t an outlier. Research across the field, including studies from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, reinforces the same conclusion. In its analysis of pre-attack behaviors among active shooters between 2000 and 2013, the FBI found that, on average, each attacker exhibited four to five observable concerning behaviors prior to the incident. In other words, these situations rarely emerge without warning.
So why aren’t these tragedies consistently prevented?
Because no single warning sign tells the full story.
The Puzzle Problem
Imagine trying to solve a puzzle with just one piece. On its own, a single piece of the story may be easy to dismiss. But when multiple pieces come together, a clear picture begins to form.
That’s exactly how behavioral warning signs work. One teacher might notice a troubling essay. A classmate might overhear a concerning comment. A counselor might observe emotional distress. Individually, these signals may not trigger alarm. But collectively, they can point to a student in crisis. In rare cases, they could be signs that someone is at risk of causing harm.
The challenge is that these pieces often remain scattered.
From Fragmentation to Connection
This is where systems—and community—become essential.
Schools must move beyond passive policies and toward active, integrated processes that gather and connect information in real time. It’s not enough to encourage people to “see something, say something.” We must also ensure that when something is said, it reaches the right people quickly and that those people know how to respond.
The NTAC report highlights just how critical timing can be. While some attackers shared their intent weeks in advance, others did so within minutes of their actions. In fact, one-third communicated their plans within an hour of the attack.
That’s not just a warning. It’s a call to action.
Speed matters. Coordination matters. Clarity matters.
Beyond Just Prevention: An Opportunity to Support
There’s another important truth embedded in this work: most students who exhibit concerning behaviors are not on a path toward perpetrating mass violence.
More often, they’re struggling with trauma, abuse, mental health challenges, substance use, or other stressors.
When schools implement effective behavioral threat assessment systems, they uncover opportunities to help as well as to prevent harm.
By connecting the dots early, schools can intervene with care instead of reacting to crisis. They can provide support instead of discipline. They can build trust instead of fear.
Building a Culture That Acts
Creating safer schools isn’t just about policies. It’s about people.
- It requires a community willing to speak up.
- It requires leaders prepared to act quickly and thoughtfully.
- And it requires systems that ensure no critical piece of information is lost or overlooked.
Security teams, mental health professionals, and administrators must work together as a connected network focused on student well-being.
Because when we bring the pieces together, we don’t just prevent harm.
We create the conditions for students to be seen, supported, and safe.
If you’re interested in learning more about how Joffe can help your school conduct a safety assessment and develop a plan with concrete action steps for improvement, check out the Joffe website or schedule a call to learn more.
NOTE: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal advice. Schools should consult their own legal counsel to evaluate specific situations.